Prediction market ads on Google are US only, with five states out.
Google allows them in the United States only, for markets designated by the CFTC and brokers authorised by the NFA, after Google certifies the account and with five states left out. TikTok takes them in 17 markets through a sales rep, as long as the platform talks trading and not betting.
- CFTC designated contract market, or NFA brokerage
- US targeting only
- A certification for each location
- Not in CT, MI, NV, NY or OH
Google's rule, condition by condition.
Google counts as a prediction market any platform that lists, or gives access to, exchange-listed event contracts on economics, sports or current events. An ad runs only if all four conditions below hold.
| Condition | What Google means |
|---|---|
| A licensed provider | You hold every financial, commodity or gaming licence the location asks for, including the ones Google checks when it certifies you. |
| Local law | Product, ads and landing follow local law, financial rules and every other Google Ads policy. Google leaves the research on local rules to you. |
| An approved location | Today that is the United States, without Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio. |
| Certification | Google approves the account before the first ad, with one application for each location. |
Who qualifies in the US
A designated contract market authorised by the CFTC whose main business is listing event contracts, or a brokerage authorised by the NFA that gives access to one.
- Binary options and fixed-return contracts
- Markets on games of chance or lotteries
- Anything local law treats as gambling and doesn't allow as a regulated prediction market
- Sites selling trading signals or tips
- Affiliate sites and broker reviews
Since January, Google has taken four states off the map.
Each closing took effect on the day Google posted it. A campaign planned on national US targeting in the spring had to change three times by October.
The CFTC has regulated prediction markets since 2004 and describes the product as event contracts, often a yes or a no with a fixed payout, usually $1. Its explainer says federally regulated markets can operate in all 50 states. Google's ad map is narrower, and Google's map is the one that decides where your ad serves.
- Prediction market ads allowed in the US, federally regulated entities only21 Jan 2026
- Ohio closed2 Jun 2026
- Michigan and New York closed13 Jul 2026
- Connecticut closed7 Oct 2026
Off Google, TikTok is the one with a list.
TikTok. Prediction markets sit in its Other Products and Services policy, updated October 2026, not in the gambling one. A July 2026 update opened them in 17 markets, the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom among them, and every other market stays closed. You apply through a TikTok sales rep, target by age and carry the disclaimers. TikTok takes platforms that use trading or event contract terms and turns away any that talk about placing bets, use gambling words or sell odds-based, sportsbook-style products.
Snapchat. Its policy doesn't name them. Its gambling section reaches any product where people pay for a game of chance with a prize of real value, and that needs Snap's written approval before any ad runs.
Meta and X. Tell us the product and we check their policies for you.
TikTok
Prediction markets sit in its Other Products and Services policy, updated October 2026, not in the gambling one. A July 2026 update opened them in 17 markets, the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom among them, and every other market stays closed. You apply through a TikTok sales rep, target by age and carry the disclaimers. TikTok takes platforms that use trading or event contract terms and turns away any that talk about placing bets, use gambling words or sell odds-based, sportsbook-style products.
Snapchat
Its policy doesn't name them. Its gambling section reaches any product where people pay for a game of chance with a prize of real value, and that needs Snap's written approval before any ad runs.
Meta and X
Tell us the product and we check their policies for you.
Can I run prediction market ads on Google outside the US?
No. The United States is the only approved location, and Google says it doesn't support ads in other markets at this time.
Can an affiliate promote a prediction market on Google?
No. Affiliate sites with related content or broker reviews are on Google's disapproval list, next to sites that sell trading signals. The gambling side has its own page for affiliates.
Are sports contracts covered?
Google's definition names event contracts on economics, sports or current events. What it refuses is anything local law defines as gambling and doesn't allow as a regulated prediction market.
Do election contracts need more?
Yes. Political and election content also needs the region's election ads verification, where it applies.
What does it cost?
On Google, your rate depends on vertical and volume. One message in chat gets you the number.
Tell us your states before you plan the spend.
Add your CFTC or NFA status. A state off Google's list can't be advertised at all, and you hear that from us first.
Send my statesPrefer WhatsApp? We’re there too.
